Forecasts on GDP – ADB, World Bank and IMF

All GDP forecasts by Asian Development Bank, World Bank and International Monetary Fund for this year and next year were revised downward from their earlier estimates made during the first half this year. The global situation has deteriorated so much that these agencies had to downgrade their original forecasts. The reason lies squarely on Eurozone sovereign debt problems, sluggish growth in United States and slowdown in China and Japan.

Asian Development Bank (ADB)

ADB cut its earlier forecast of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for Asia excluding Japan to 6.1% for this year (down from July estimate of 6.6%). In 2013, forecast is for 6.7% growth rate.

Forecast for China is 7.7% for 2012 and 8.1% for 2013. Forecast for India is 5.6% for 2012 and 6.7% for 2013. Forecast for South East Asia is 5.2% for 2012 and 5.5% for 2013.

World Bank

World Bank also cut its earlier estimates of GDP growth rates for Developing East Asia (including China) to 7.2% for 2012. Forecast for 2013 is 7.6%. China is forecast to grow at 7.7% in 2012 and 8.1% in 2013 (similar to ADB’s forecasts).

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

IMF joined ADB and World Bank in marking down GDP growth rates for world economies. It now forecast that GDP for 2012 is 3.3% and 3.6% in 2013. The GDP growth rates by countries and groupings are:

2012 2013
US 2.2% 2.75%
Euro area – 0.4% 0.2%
Japan 2.2% 1.2%
Developing Asia 6.7% 7.2%
China 7.8% 8.2%
India 4.9% 6.0%
Singapore 2.1% 2.9%

Source: WEO October 2012.

Copyright © 2012, limkimtong for Living Investment

The material presented is intended to be general and written in layman’s language as much as it is possible. The author shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material written. Please seek professional advice from your financial advisor or financial institutions on material written covering financial matters.

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