In my earlier post, I reviewed the Straits Times Index (STI) seven days before Christmas for 22 years and found that it rose 17 times out of 22 years.
I extend the study to review the STI performance seven days after Christmas (i.e. on eve of New Year).
The table below tabulates the changes in the STI between 24 December and 31 December of each year.
|
Year |
24-Dec |
7 days after |
Change |
|
2013 |
3127 |
?? |
?? |
|
2012 |
3168 |
3167 |
0.0% |
|
2011 |
2676 |
2646 |
-1.1% |
|
2010 |
3143 |
3190 |
1.5% |
|
2009 |
2837 |
2897 |
2.1% |
|
2008 |
1736 |
1761 |
1.4% |
|
2007 |
3434 |
3482 |
1.4% |
|
2006 |
2942 |
2985 |
1.5% |
|
2005 |
2328 |
2347 |
0.8% |
|
2004 |
2055 |
2066 |
0.5% |
|
2003 |
1725 |
1764 |
2.3% |
|
2002 |
1337 |
1341 |
0.3% |
|
2001 |
1581 |
1623 |
2.7% |
|
2000 |
1902 |
1926 |
1.3% |
|
1999 |
2446 |
2479 |
1.3% |
|
1998 |
1392 |
1392 |
0.0% |
|
1997 |
1573 |
1529 |
-2.8% |
|
1996 |
2187 |
2216 |
1.3% |
|
1995 |
2287 |
2266 |
-0.9% |
|
1994 |
2219 |
2239 |
0.9% |
|
1993 |
2326 |
2425 |
4.3% |
|
1992 |
1488 |
1524 |
2.4% |
The STI rose 18 times out of 21 years, better than the study of STI seven days before Christmas. In 1997, the STI declined 2.8% and it was due the onset of Asian Financial Crisis 1997/98.
As for this year, will the STI be better than 3127 points touched on 24 December 2013? Will the STI return to positive territory since the start of this year? (STI on 1 January 2013 = 3167.)
With the year-end window dressing often carried out by some fund managers, my sense that STI will be better than 3,167 points.
(STI was at 3,149 points on 27 December 2013)
Copyright © 2013, limkimtong for Living Investment
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