Annual growth rates for Singapore real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) were mapped to the Straits Times Index (STI) at the end of each year. This table shows real GDP growth rates since 1997 and the corresponding STI at the end of that year.
|Year||GDP growth rate (%)||STI|
Source: Singapore Department of Statistics (for GDP numbers)
Forecast for 2015
We are now in September. The GDP forecast made by the Ministry of Trade and Industry for 2015 was between 2.0% to 2.5%. DBS released its forecast for GDP to grow at 1.8%. The private sector economists forecast GDP to be +2.2%.
STI at end 2015?
GDP forecast for 2015 appears to be worse off compared to last year’s (2.9%). Confidence in the Singapore economy was weak based on a survey of business sentiments. So naturally, confidence in Singapore equities is getting a hit. At GDP growth of 2.9%, the STI ended at 3,365.15 points in 2014. What about 2015? There are many factors influencing the STI. STI as at yesterday was 2,928.18 points. One thing I can wager on is that 3,365 points will be hard to attain with slightly more than a quarter to go in 2015. I am not too sure about the floor for the STI.
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